Phoenix HousingGauge — September 21, 2026 | YELLOW 45

Welcome to the Phoenix HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of September 21, 2026.

Here is the headline. Phoenix's HousingGauge score is 45 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.48 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.95%, versus 6.47% three months ago.

Second: Score down 6 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 51 to 45 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−3.8 points).

Third: Local employment down 3.3% year over year. Unemployment stands at 4.6%.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 19 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.95%, up 0.73 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 63 out of 100. Inventory is 1.7% higher than a year ago (5,519 active listings), with 4.1 months of supply. Homes take a median 57 days to sell at 97.8% of list price, and 37.9% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 56 out of 100. Pending sales are 1.9% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 3.9% higher. Days on market are 5.0% shorter than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 59 out of 100. The median home costs 5.6 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 35.5% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.2% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 34 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.6% and employment is down 3.3% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 32 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.2% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 24.1). Rents are up 0.6% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (48 to 45). Over 13 weeks it is down 6 points, from 51 to 45. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−3.8 points) and Monetary Conditions (−2.9 points).

So what would move Phoenix into the green? It is 24 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 19 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.80% (now 6.95%); pending sales grow more than 13.5% year over year (now −1.9%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 6.4 months (now 4.1 months); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.15 pts over three months (now +0.48 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Any one of these could push the score down a status level: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.15% (now 6.95%); pending sales fall more than 4.5% year over year (now −1.9%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.40 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.50 pts (now +0.23 pts).

That is the Phoenix HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.