Nashville HousingGauge — September 14, 2026 | YELLOW 53

Welcome to the Nashville HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of September 14, 2026.

Here is the headline. Nashville's HousingGauge score is 53 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions are broadly stable, but financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.24 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.76%, versus 6.52% three months ago.

Second: Inventory up 12.2% year over year. 5,321 homes are listed for sale, equal to 5.8 months of supply.

Third: Score down 2 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 55 to 53 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 28 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.76%, up 0.65 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 80 out of 100. Inventory is 12.2% higher than a year ago (5,321 active listings), with 5.8 months of supply. Homes take a median 64 days to sell at 97.6% of list price, and 36.5% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 59 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.23%, 0.22 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 49 out of 100. Pending sales are 1.1% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 1.1% lower. Days on market are 3.2% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 53 out of 100. The median home costs 6.1 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 38.3% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 3.4% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 60 out of 100. Local unemployment is 3.0% and employment is down 0.6% year over year. The local job market is steady.

Rental Economics scores 33 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.6% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 21.7). Rents are down 0.2% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is up 3 points from last week's report (50 to 53). Over 13 weeks it is down 2 points, from 55 to 53. The largest contributors were Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points) and Supply & Buyer Leverage (+1.1 points).

So what would move Nashville into the green? It is 17 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 17 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.60% (now 6.76%); pending sales grow more than 14.0% year over year (now −1.1%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.95 pts (now +0.22 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.40 pts over three months (now +0.24 pts); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 5.8 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.35% (now 6.76%); pending sales fall more than 9.0% year over year (now −1.1%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.40 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.80 pts (now +0.22 pts); and months of supply falls below 4.6 months (now 5.8 months).

That is the Nashville HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.