Nashville HousingGauge — July 27, 2026 | YELLOW 53

Welcome to the Nashville HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 27, 2026.

Here is the headline. Nashville's HousingGauge score is 53 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score down 6 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 59 to 53 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Demand Trend (+4.2 points).

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.35 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.58%, versus 6.23% three months ago.

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 61 days to sell, 7.0% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 31 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.58%, up 0.49 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 69 out of 100. Inventory is 1.3% higher than a year ago (4,833 active listings), with 4.9 months of supply. Homes take a median 61 days to sell at 97.7% of list price, and 35.5% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 61 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.15 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 60 out of 100. Pending sales are 2.6% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 5.0% higher. Days on market are 7.0% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 52 out of 100. The median home costs 6.2 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 38.0% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.3% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 64 out of 100. Local unemployment is 2.7% and employment is down 0.2% year over year. The local job market is steady.

Rental Economics scores 33 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.6% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 21.9). Rents are down 0.2% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 6 points, from 59 to 53. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+4.2 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.6 points).

So what would move Nashville into the green? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.50% (now 6.58%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +2.6%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.95 pts (now +0.15 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.25 pts over three months (now +0.35 pts); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 4.9 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.20% (now 6.58%); pending sales fall more than 5.5% year over year (now +2.6%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.40 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.75 pts (now +0.15 pts); and months of supply falls below 3.7 months (now 4.9 months).

That is the Nashville HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.