Oklahoma City HousingGauge — July 20, 2026 | YELLOW 55

Welcome to the Oklahoma City HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 20, 2026.

Here is the headline. Oklahoma City's HousingGauge score is 55 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score down 8 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 63 to 55 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Monetary Conditions (−3.6 points).

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.25 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.55%, versus 6.30% three months ago.

Third: Local employment down 2.2% year over year. Unemployment stands at 4.2%.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 33 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.55%, up 0.49 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 53 out of 100. Inventory is 8.7% higher than a year ago (3,341 active listings), with 3.4 months of supply. Homes take a median 39 days to sell at 98.3% of list price, and 34.1% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 61 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.15 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 63 out of 100. Pending sales are 4.5% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 7.5% higher. Days on market are 14.7% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 86 out of 100. The median home costs 3.9 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 24.0% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 5.1% lower than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Local Economy scores 38 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.2% and employment is down 2.2% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 62 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.6% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 17.7). Rents are up 3.1% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 1 point from last week's report (56 to 55). Over 13 weeks it is down 8 points, from 63 to 55. The largest contributors were Monetary Conditions (−3.6 points) and Supply & Buyer Leverage (−3.0 points).

So what would move Oklahoma City into the green? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.60% (now 6.55%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +4.5%); the Fed cuts more than 0.65 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.80 pts (now +0.15 pts); months of supply rises above 5.3 months (now 3.4 months); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.25 pts over three months (now +0.25 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.25% (now 6.55%); pending sales fall more than 5.0% year over year (now +4.5%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.50 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.90 pts (now +0.15 pts); and months of supply falls below 2.0 months (now 3.4 months).

That is the Oklahoma City HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.