Oklahoma City HousingGauge — July 6, 2026 | YELLOW 58

Welcome to the Oklahoma City HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 6, 2026.

Here is the headline. Oklahoma City's HousingGauge score is 58 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions are broadly stable, but financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Local employment down 2.2% year over year. Unemployment stands at 4.2%.

Second: Rents up 3.1% year over year. Typical rent is $1,267 a month, for a gross rental yield of 5.6%.

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 46 days to sell, 12.2% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 44 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.43%, up 0.28 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 55 out of 100. Inventory is 7.1% higher than a year ago (3,219 active listings), with 3.5 months of supply. Homes take a median 46 days to sell at 98.3% of list price, and 32.6% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 72 out of 100. The real policy rate is 0.59%, 0.50 points below the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a accommodative stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months. Policy is a tailwind for credit conditions, though it does not by itself move home prices.

Demand Trend scores 59 out of 100. Pending sales are 2.2% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 6.1% higher. Days on market are 12.2% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 85 out of 100. The median home costs 3.9 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 23.7% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 4.0% lower than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Local Economy scores 38 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.2% and employment is down 2.2% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 62 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.6% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 17.8). Rents are up 3.1% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks the score is unchanged at 58. The largest contributors were Supply & Buyer Leverage (−3.0 points) and Mortgage Conditions (+1.0 points).

So what would move Oklahoma City into the green? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.65% (now 6.43%); pending sales grow more than 12.0% year over year (now +2.2%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); months of supply rises above 5.0 months (now 3.5 months); mortgage rates fall more than 0.45 pts over three months (now −0.03 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now −0.50 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.40% (now 6.43%); pending sales fall more than 10.5% year over year (now +2.2%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.65 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.45 pts (now −0.50 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.6 months (now 3.5 months).

That is the Oklahoma City HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.