Ann Arbor HousingGauge — August 10, 2026 | YELLOW 51

Welcome to the Ann Arbor HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of August 10, 2026.

Here is the headline. Ann Arbor's HousingGauge score is 51 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Local employment down 7.1% year over year. Unemployment stands at 3.4%.

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.32 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.69%, versus 6.37% three months ago.

Third: Inventory up 16.5% year over year. 331 homes are listed for sale, equal to 2.6 months of supply.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 28 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.69%, up 0.58 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 42 out of 100. Inventory is 16.5% higher than a year ago (331 active listings), with 2.6 months of supply. Homes take a median 36 days to sell at 100.7% of list price, and 23.8% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 61 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.15 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 86 out of 100. Pending sales are 15.6% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 11.0% higher. Days on market are 9.1% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 55 out of 100. The median home costs 5.8 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 35.8% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 0.4% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 46 out of 100. Local unemployment is 3.4% and employment is down 7.1% year over year. The local job market is steady.

Rental Economics scores 49 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.4% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 18.6). Rents are up 1.1% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 5 points, from 56 to 51. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+8.4 points) and Supply & Buyer Leverage (−5.8 points).

So what would move Ann Arbor into the green? It is 18 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 17 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.55% (now 6.69%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now +0.15 pts); months of supply rises above 4.9 months (now 2.6 months); mortgage rates fall more than 0.30 pts over three months (now +0.32 pts); and rent growth exceeds +5.0% (now +1.1%).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.15% (now 6.69%); pending sales growth slows below 8.5% year over year (now +15.6%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.30 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.65 pts (now +0.15 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.6 months (now 2.6 months).

That is the Ann Arbor HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.