City · Washtenaw County · Ann Arbor metro
Ann Arbor, Michigan
HousingGauge Score
46
−8 over 13 weeks
Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.
- 1 wk
- 0
- 1 mo
- −1
- 3 mo
- −8
- 1 yr
- −11
- 5 yr
- −14
YELLOW since Nov 18, 2024Last updated September 29, 2026Data for the week of September 28, 2026
Score history
30 → 46 since Oct 9, 2023
GREEN 70–100YELLOW 45–69RED 0–44
Key metrics
This week's 5-minute market report
All episodes →Ann Arbor HousingGauge — September 28, 2026 | YELLOW 46
September 29, 2026 · 4:17 · Narrated by Leah and Marcus (AI hosts)
Key takeaways
- 1
Local employment down 5.7% year over year. Unemployment stands at 3.5%.
- 2
Inventory up 29.2% year over year. 350 homes are listed for sale, equal to 3.0 months of supply.
- 3
Mortgage rates up 0.54 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.03%, versus 6.49% three months ago.
Read the transcript
Leah: There are 29.2% more homes for sale in Ann Arbor than a year ago. We'll get into who that helps, and why time is quietly switching sides.
Leah: Hi, and welcome to the Ann Arbor HousingGauge. It's the week of September 28, 2026, and I'm Leah.
Marcus: I'm Marcus. Good to be here.
Leah: Before we start: we're both AI voices, reading from HousingGauge's data. Every figure is sourced at housinggauge.com.
Leah: Quick scoreboard before we dig in.
Marcus: Ann Arbor scores 46 out of 100 this week, which is YELLOW. No change on the week. Three months ago it was 54, and a year ago, 57.
Leah: Heading the wrong direction, then.
Leah: I keep seeing more For Sale signs. Listings in Ann Arbor are up 29.2% from a year ago. Is that real?
Marcus: It's real: 350 homes on the market right now. The question is why they're there. Some are owners who finally decided to move. Some are homes that were priced for last year and haven't sold.
Leah: How do you tell the difference?
Marcus: Time and price cuts. Fresh listings that sell are a healthy market finding its footing. Listings that sit and get cut are a market where buyers are setting the terms.
Leah: How does Ann Arbor compare with the other markets we track?
Marcus: One thing in particular: how fast homes sell. Homes in Ann Arbor sell for 99.4% of their list price, the highest of the 10 markets we track. The typical market on our list is at 98.0%. Buyers here pay closer to asking than almost anywhere we track.
Leah: Those numbers say more about Ann Arbor than the score does on its own.
Leah: Let's talk jobs. Employment in Ann Arbor is down 5.7% from a year ago. Why should a housing listener care?
Marcus: Because every mortgage is a bet on future paychecks. When local employment slips, the first thing that changes isn't prices; it's confidence. Fewer people feel sure enough to take on a thirty-year commitment.
Leah: And then prices?
Marcus: Eventually, if the weakness lasts. Local job figures get revised often, so I'd want to see a few more months before calling it a trend.
Leah: How much does the University of Michigan shape Ann Arbor's housing market?
Marcus: A lot. Leases, faculty moves and graduate students all turn over on an academic cycle, so the rental market keeps its own calendar. Typical rent here is $2,086 a month, and a big share of demand comes from people whose plans are set by the school year, not by mortgage rates.
Leah: So the rent side of Ann Arbor runs on semesters.
Leah: How much of what we're seeing is just the time of year?
Marcus: Some of it, usually. Late in the year, the buyers in a hurry have mostly bought already, and fewer new listings come on. The fair comparison is with the same time last year, and on that basis homes in Ann Arbor are taking 10.8% longer to sell.
Leah: So compare with last year, not last month.
Marcus: Exactly. Seasonal swings are normal. The changes worth trusting are the ones that persist into the next season.
Leah: Pile of cash, one more time: how does it look here this week?
Marcus: Better than many: rent of 5.3% a year on the price before costs, versus about 3.88% in cash. The income case exists in Ann Arbor, as long as costs and prices cooperate. Just the numbers, not advice.
Leah: What would it take to get Ann Arbor to GREEN?
Marcus: There's no single switch. It's 24 points away, and even pending sales growing more than 15.0% from a year earlier and mortgage rates falling below 5.90% together wouldn't close the gap. That's distance, not a forecast.
Leah: And what would make it worse?
Marcus: The cushion is thin. Either pending sales falling more than 3.0% from a year earlier or mortgage rates rising above 7.40% would be enough to push it into RED.
Leah: Give me the one thing to remember.
Marcus: When listings pile up, the patient side of the table gains leverage. Right now that's buyers.
Leah: That's the Ann Arbor HousingGauge for the week of September 28, 2026.
Marcus: The fine print: our score describes market conditions only. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell, and not individualized financial advice. Sources and charts live at housinggauge.com.
Leah: We'll be back next week. Thanks for listening.
Why Ann Arbor is YELLOW
Seven components, each scored 0–100 from Ann Arbor's own data, weighted into the total. How scoring works
Mortgage Conditions · 20% of score
Headwind18/100
The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.03%, up 0.65 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.
Contributes 3.6 of the 46 points.
Supply & Buyer Leverage · 20% of score
Mixed57/100
Inventory is 29.2% higher than a year ago (350 active listings), with 3.0 months of supply. Homes take a median 41 days to sell at 99.4% of list price, and 33.7% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.
Contributes 11.4 of the 46 points.
Monetary Conditions · 15% of score
Mixed53/100
The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.
Contributes 7.9 of the 46 points.
Demand Trend · 15% of score
Mixed53/100
Pending sales are 2.3% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 0.3% lower. Days on market are 10.8% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.
Contributes 8.0 of the 46 points.
Valuation & Affordability · 10% of score
Mixed57/100
The median home costs 5.8 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 37.0% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 3.3% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.
Contributes 5.7 of the 46 points.
Local Economy · 10% of score
Mixed45/100
Local unemployment is 3.5% and employment is down 5.7% year over year. The local job market is steady.
Contributes 4.5 of the 46 points.
Rental Economics · 10% of score
Mixed46/100
A year of median rent equals 5.3% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 19.0). Rents are up 0.8% year over year. Rental economics are middling.
Contributes 4.6 of the 46 points.
Why the score changed
The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 8 points, from 54 to 46. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−4.3 points) and Demand Trend (−3.9 points).
What would turn Ann Arbor GREEN?
Ann Arbor is 24 points from GREEN (70) — that would take a broad shift. Even these changes together would add only about 18 points:
- 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.90% · now 7.03%
- Pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year · now +2.3%
- The Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months · now +0.24 pts
- Policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts · now +0.23 pts
- Months of supply rises above 5.3 months · now 3.0 months
- Mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months · now +0.54 pts
And keep these strengths
- Unemployment stays below 5.5% · now 3.5%
- Inventory runs more than 5.0% above last year · now +29.2%
What would make conditions worse?
Any one of these could push Ann Arbor down to RED:
- 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.40% · now 7.03%
- Pending sales fall more than 3.0% year over year · now +2.3%
- The Fed raises rates more than 0.55 pts over six months · now +0.24 pts
- Policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.70 pts · now +0.23 pts
Market data over time
Median sale price, nominal and in today's dollars (CPI-adjusted).
- Nominal$475,000
- Real (today's $)$475,000
View as table
| Week of | Nominal | Real (today's $) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | $475,000 | $475,000 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | $487,000 | $487,000 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | $413,000 | $421,000 |
| Dec 29, 2025 | $490,000 | $504,000 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | $475,000 | $491,000 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | $460,000 | $479,000 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | $448,000 | $468,000 |
| Dec 30, 2024 | $450,000 | $475,000 |
All metrics & sources
Show
| Prices | ||
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $475,000 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Median sale price change (YoY) | 0.0% | Calculated |
| Median price per square foot | $304 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Price per sq ft change (YoY) | +3.6% | Calculated |
| Real median sale price change (YoY) | −3.3% | Calculated |
| Real price per sq ft change (YoY) | +0.2% | Calculated |
| Supply & leverage | ||
| Active inventory | 350 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Inventory change (YoY) | +29.2% | Calculated |
| Months of supply | 3.0 months | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Median days on market | 41 days | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.4% | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Listings with price cuts | 33.7% | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Demand | ||
| Days on market change (YoY) | +10.8% | Calculated |
| Closed sales | 361 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Closed sales change (YoY) | −0.3% | Calculated |
| Pending sales | 358 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Pending sales change (YoY) | +2.3% | Calculated |
| Rents | ||
| Typical rent | $2,086 | Zillow Research (ZORI) · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Rent change (YoY) | +0.8% | Calculated |
| Price-to-rent ratio | 19.0× | Calculated |
| Gross rental yield | 5.3% | Calculated |
| Affordability | ||
| Median household income | $82,200 | U.S. Census Bureau · Dec 31, 2024 |
| Price-to-income ratio | 5.8× | Calculated |
| Payment-to-income | 37.0% | Calculated |
| Local economy | ||
| Unemployment rate | 3.5% | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Jul 1, 2026 |
| Employment growth (YoY) | −5.7% | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Jul 1, 2026 |
| Financing | ||
| 30-year mortgage rate | 7.03% | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Sep 24, 2026 |
| Mortgage rate change (3 mo) | +0.54 pts | Calculated |
| Mortgage rate change (6 mo) | +0.65 pts | Calculated |
| Monetary policy | ||
| Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) | 334.1 | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Aug 1, 2026 |
| CPI inflation (YoY) | 3.4% | Calculated |
| Expected inflation | 2.64% | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Sep 1, 2026 |
| Fed funds rate | 3.88% | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Sep 27, 2026 |
| Fed funds change (6 mo) | +0.24 pts | Calculated |
| Neutral rate (r-star) | 1.01% | Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Apr 1, 2026 |
| Real policy rate | 1.24% | Calculated |
| Policy gap | +0.23 pts | Calculated |
| Construction | ||
| Housing starts (U.S.) | 1,275K | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Aug 1, 2026 |
Ann Arbor housing market FAQ
What is the HousingGauge score for Ann Arbor right now?
Ann Arbor, MI scores 46 out of 100 (YELLOW) as of the week of September 28, 2026. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.
Is Ann Arbor a buyer's market or a seller's market?
Conditions are fairly balanced between buyers and sellers. HousingGauge's Supply & Buyer Leverage component is 57 out of 100: there are 3.0 months of supply and homes sell in a median 41 days at 99.4% of list price.
How affordable is Ann Arbor?
The median home costs 5.8 times the median household income, and principal and interest on a typical purchase (20% down, 30-year fixed) would take 37.0% of that income at current rates.
How do mortgage rates affect Ann Arbor's score?
Mortgage conditions carry 20% of the score. With the 30-year fixed rate at 7.03%, the Mortgage Conditions component scores 18 out of 100.
What would turn Ann Arbor GREEN?
Ann Arbor needs a score of 70 to be GREEN. The biggest levers right now: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.90% (now 7.03%); Pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +2.3%); The Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts).
How often is the score updated?
Weekly. Each week HousingGauge refreshes the underlying data, recalculates every component score with the same published model, and records the result so you can see how the market has moved.
Data sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York — 1 metrics, latest observation April 1, 2026
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — 5 metrics, latest observation September 27, 2026
- Zillow Research (ZORI) — 1 metrics, latest observation August 31, 2026
- Redfin, a national real estate brokerage — 9 metrics, latest observation August 31, 2026
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — 2 metrics, latest observation July 1, 2026
- U.S. Census Bureau — 1 metrics, latest observation December 31, 2024
Scores are calculated by HousingGauge's published model (version v1) from the data above. Data coverage this week: 100% of model weight. Scores describe market conditions; they are not forecasts or individualized advice. Methodology