Ann Arbor HousingGauge — July 13, 2026 | YELLOW 50

Welcome to the Ann Arbor HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 13, 2026.

Here is the headline. Ann Arbor's HousingGauge score is 50 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions are broadly stable, but financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Local employment down 6.4% year over year. Unemployment stands at 3.5%.

Second: Inventory up 19.4% year over year. 339 homes are listed for sale, equal to 3.3 months of supply.

Third: Median price up 5.7% from a year ago. The median sale price is $487,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 1.5% higher than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 39 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.49%, up 0.33 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 46 out of 100. Inventory is 19.4% higher than a year ago (339 active listings), with 3.3 months of supply. Homes take a median 35 days to sell at 100.7% of list price, and 21.0% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 72 out of 100. The real policy rate is 0.58%, 0.51 points below the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a accommodative stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months. Policy is a tailwind for credit conditions, though it does not by itself move home prices.

Demand Trend scores 50 out of 100. Pending sales are 3.6% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 7.6% lower. Days on market are 6.1% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 52 out of 100. The median home costs 5.9 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 35.9% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 1.5% higher than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 45 out of 100. Local unemployment is 3.5% and employment is down 6.4% year over year. The local job market is steady.

Rental Economics scores 48 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.3% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 19.0). Rents are up 1.3% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 4 points from last week's report (54 to 50). Over 13 weeks it is up 2 points, from 48 to 50. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+7.2 points) and Supply & Buyer Leverage (−2.4 points).

So what would move Ann Arbor into the green? It is 20 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 16 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.35% (now 6.49%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.02 pts); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +3.6%); months of supply rises above 5.6 months (now 3.3 months); mortgage rates fall more than 0.50 pts over three months (now +0.12 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now −0.51 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 6.90% (now 6.49%); pending sales fall more than 1.5% year over year (now +3.6%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.25 pts over six months (now −0.02 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above −0.10 pts (now −0.51 pts); and months of supply falls below 2.5 months (now 3.3 months).

That is the Ann Arbor HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.