Madison metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | YELLOW 46

Welcome to the Madison metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Madison metro's HousingGauge score is 46 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 11 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 57 to 46 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Pending sales up 11.0% year over year. Contract signings are a leading indicator of closed sales over the next one to two months.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 46 out of 100. Inventory is 5.4% higher than a year ago (2,173 active listings), with 2.8 months of supply. Homes take a median 54 days to sell at 99.3% of list price, and 18.0% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 75 out of 100. Pending sales are 11.0% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 5.9% higher. Days on market are 8.0% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 62 out of 100. The median home costs 5.1 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 33.3% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 0.5% higher than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 43 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.4% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 22.9). Rents are up 2.4% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (49 to 46). Over 13 weeks it is down 11 points, from 57 to 46. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Madison metro into the green? It is 24 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 18 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 5.1 months (now 2.8 months); mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts); and pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +11.0%).

And what could make conditions worse? Any one of these could push the score down a status level: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.70% (now 7.28%); pending sales growth slows below 5.5% year over year (now +11.0%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.60 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.75 pts (now +0.23 pts).

That is the Madison metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.