Seattle metro, Washington

Welcome to the Seattle metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Seattle metro's HousingGauge score is 36 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Inventory up 29.6% year over year. 11,075 homes are listed for sale, equal to 3.3 months of supply.

Third: Score down 9 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 45 to 36 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 51 out of 100. Inventory is 29.6% higher than a year ago (11,075 active listings), with 3.3 months of supply. Homes take a median 25 days to sell at 99.5% of list price, and 22.5% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 24 out of 100. Pending sales are 9.8% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 9.7% lower. Days on market are 11.2% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 50 out of 100. The median home costs 6.5 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 42.6% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 7.2% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 31 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 3.7% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 27.3). Rents are up 1.7% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is down 1 point from last week's report (37 to 36). Over 13 weeks it is down 9 points, from 45 to 36. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Seattle metro into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.80% (now 7.28%); pending sales decline less than 3.0% year over year (now −9.8%); the Fed cuts more than 0.10 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.30 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 4.4 months (now 3.3 months); and mortgage rates rise less than 0.20 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.60% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 14.0% year over year (now −9.8%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 2.7 months (now 3.3 months).

That is the Seattle metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.