Provo metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | RED 39

Welcome to the Provo metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Provo metro's HousingGauge score is 39 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 11 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 50 to 39 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Pending sales down 12.2% year over year. Contract signings are a leading indicator of closed sales over the next one to two months.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 60 out of 100. Inventory is 4.5% higher than a year ago (3,144 active listings), with 4.7 months of supply. Homes take a median 48 days to sell at 98.9% of list price, and 28.9% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 19 out of 100. Pending sales are 12.2% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 17.9% lower. Days on market are 2.0% shorter than a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 62 out of 100. The median home costs 5.2 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 34.4% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 1.8% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 37 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.1% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 24.5). Rents are up 1.9% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (42 to 39). Over 13 weeks it is down 11 points, from 50 to 39. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Demand Trend (−3.2 points).

So what would move Provo metro into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.95% (now 7.28%); pending sales decline less than 8.0% year over year (now −12.2%); the Fed keeps cutting over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.10 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 5.4 months (now 4.7 months); and mortgage rates rise less than 0.30 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.65% (now 7.28%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.50 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.60 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply falls below 4.0 months (now 4.7 months); and pending sales fall more than 15.0% year over year (now −12.2%).

That is the Provo metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.