McAllen metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | YELLOW 54

Welcome to the McAllen metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. McAllen metro's HousingGauge score is 54 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions are broadly stable, but financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Pending sales up 8.9% year over year. Contract signings are a leading indicator of closed sales over the next one to two months.

Third: Score down 2 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 56 to 54 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 78 out of 100. Inventory is 2.4% higher than a year ago (3,334 active listings), with 9.3 months of supply. Homes take a median 90 days to sell at 97.3% of list price, and 14.4% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 70 out of 100. Pending sales are 8.9% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 3.9% higher. Days on market are 4.7% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 73 out of 100. The median home costs 4.6 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 30.1% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 3.7% lower than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Rental Economics scores 46 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.4% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 18.5). Rents are up 0.5% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (53 to 54). Over 13 weeks it is down 2 points, from 56 to 54. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Demand Trend (+6.6 points).

So what would move McAllen metro into the green? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.30% (now 7.28%); the Fed cuts more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.75 pts (now +0.23 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.05 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts); rent growth exceeds +4.5% (now +0.5%); and pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +8.9%).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.90% (now 7.28%); pending sales growth slows below 0.5% year over year (now +8.9%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.65 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.85 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 5.3 months (now 9.3 months).

That is the McAllen metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.