Fort Worth HousingGauge — September 28, 2026 | YELLOW 49

Cole: Prices in Fort Worth are down 2.1% from a year ago, the steepest drop of the 10 markets we track. We'll get into why that matters.

Cole: You're listening to the Fort Worth HousingGauge, week of September 28, 2026. I'm Cole.

Owen: And I'm Owen.

Cole: A reminder that we're AI voices. The numbers are real, and you can check every one at housinggauge.com.

Cole: Let's start with the scoreboard.

Owen: 49, and YELLOW. Same as last week. The path: 61 a year ago, 59 three months ago, 49 now.

Cole: That's a lot of ground lost.

Cole: If you bought a typical home in Fort Worth a year ago, are you ahead?

Owen: On the sticker, roughly even. In real terms, behind: adjusted for inflation, the typical home is worth 5.2% less than a year ago.

Cole: That's not how most owners think about it.

Owen: No, and that's why this kind of correction goes unnoticed. People remember what they paid, not what a dollar was worth when they paid it.

Cole: What makes Fort Worth different from the other markets on our list?

Owen: Two things. The first is jobs. Local employment in Fort Worth is up 0.3% from a year ago, the strongest of the 9 markets we track with this figure. The typical market on our list is down 1.0%. Job growth is the slow engine under housing demand.

Cole: What's the other one?

Owen: Rent. In Fort Worth, a year of rent comes to 5.8% of the median home price, near the top of the 10 markets we track. In the typical market we track, it's at 4.8%. Rent carries more of the price here than almost anywhere we track, which is why investors pay attention.

Cole: So Fort Worth isn't just a score. It has its own shape.

Cole: Sellers in Fort Worth are trimming prices: 41.4% of listings so far. Doesn't that mean buyers are getting deals?

Owen: Less than you'd think. The homes that sell are going for 98.1% of their list price. The cut usually comes first, while the house sits, and then it sells close to the new number.

Cole: So the negotiating happens before the offer.

Owen: Mostly. A buyer who only looks at sale-to-list will think sellers are holding firm. The better tell is how many listings had to come down at all, and how long they sat first.

Cole: How does Fort Worth fit next to Dallas?

Owen: It's long been the more affordable half of the Metroplex, and a lot of its growth came from people who wanted Dallas-area jobs at a lower price. The median home here sells for $332,000, and a typical payment takes 26.8% of the median income. That gap is a big part of Fort Worth's pitch.

Cole: Same region, different price of entry.

Cole: What does the Federal Reserve actually have to do with a house in Fort Worth?

Owen: More than people think, and less than the headlines suggest. The Fed sets short-term rates. Mortgage rates follow longer-term bond markets, which react to what the Fed is expected to do. Right now the fed funds rate is 3.88%, up 0.24 points over six months, and adjusted for expected inflation it sits 0.23 points above what economists estimate is neutral.

Cole: In plain English?

Owen: Policy is roughly neutral. It isn't pushing borrowing costs much in either direction.

Cole: Before we go, the investor's sanity check.

Owen: Gross rental yield, 5.8%. Cash, roughly 3.88%. The house earns more on paper, before the costs of owning it. That's the arithmetic; the decision is personal.

Cole: How far is Fort Worth from GREEN, really?

Owen: It's 20 points off. Think of pending sales growing more than 15.0% from a year earlier and mortgage rates falling below 5.90% as a start, not the whole distance.

Cole: And how close is the line below?

Owen: More than one thing would have to go wrong, for example pending sales falling more than 4.0% from a year earlier alongside mortgage rates rising above 7.40%.

Cole: That wraps up the Fort Worth HousingGauge for the week of September 28, 2026.

Owen: For the record: the score describes conditions, not what anyone should do. It isn't a recommendation to buy or sell, or individualized financial advice. Everything we cited is at housinggauge.com.

Cole: Thanks for joining us. Until next week.