Fort Worth HousingGauge — September 14, 2026 | YELLOW 52

Welcome to the Fort Worth HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of September 14, 2026.

Here is the headline. Fort Worth's HousingGauge score is 52 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score down 7 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 59 to 52 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.24 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.76%, versus 6.52% three months ago.

Third: Inventory down 6.2% year over year. 3,713 homes are listed for sale, equal to 3.7 months of supply.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 28 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.76%, up 0.65 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 54 out of 100. Inventory is 6.2% lower than a year ago (3,713 active listings), with 3.7 months of supply. Homes take a median 48 days to sell at 98.1% of list price, and 41.4% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 59 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.23%, 0.22 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 56 out of 100. Pending sales are 0.6% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 2.2% higher. Days on market are 2.1% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 82 out of 100. The median home costs 4.2 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 26.1% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 4.9% lower than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Local Economy scores 52 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.8% and employment is up 0.3% year over year. The local job market is steady.

Rental Economics scores 50 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.8% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 17.2). Rents are up 0.2% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 1 point from last week's report (53 to 52). Over 13 weeks it is down 7 points, from 59 to 52. The largest contributors were Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points) and Demand Trend (−2.5 points).

So what would move Fort Worth into the green? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.70% (now 6.76%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +0.6%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.85 pts (now +0.22 pts); months of supply rises above 5.9 months (now 3.7 months); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.35 pts over three months (now +0.24 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.30% (now 6.76%); pending sales fall more than 6.5% year over year (now +0.6%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.35 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.75 pts (now +0.22 pts); and months of supply falls below 2.6 months (now 3.7 months).

That is the Fort Worth HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.