Fort Worth HousingGauge — July 6, 2026 | YELLOW 60

Welcome to the Fort Worth HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 6, 2026.

Here is the headline. Fort Worth's HousingGauge score is 60 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have improved over the past three months, but financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score up 3 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 57 to 60 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Demand Trend (+4.4 points).

Second: Pending sales up 8.7% year over year. Contract signings are a leading indicator of closed sales over the next one to two months.

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 47 days to sell, 6.8% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 44 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.43%, up 0.28 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 53 out of 100. Inventory is 5.4% lower than a year ago (3,768 active listings), with 3.8 months of supply. Homes take a median 47 days to sell at 98.2% of list price, and 35.2% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 72 out of 100. The real policy rate is 0.59%, 0.50 points below the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a accommodative stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months. Policy is a tailwind for credit conditions, though it does not by itself move home prices.

Demand Trend scores 72 out of 100. Pending sales are 8.7% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 6.8% higher. Days on market are 6.8% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 83 out of 100. The median home costs 4.2 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 25.4% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 5.3% lower than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Local Economy scores 60 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.1% and employment is up 0.4% year over year. The local job market is steady.

Rental Economics scores 50 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.7% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 17.4). Rents are up 0.3% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (59 to 60). Over 13 weeks it is up 3 points, from 57 to 60. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+4.4 points) and Supply & Buyer Leverage (−3.4 points).

So what would move Fort Worth into the green? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.80% (now 6.43%); the Fed cuts more than 0.45 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +8.7%); months of supply rises above 5.0 months (now 3.8 months); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now −0.50 pts); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.35 pts over three months (now −0.03 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.55% (now 6.43%); pending sales fall more than 6.0% year over year (now +8.7%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.60 pts (now −0.50 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.6 months (now 3.8 months).

That is the Fort Worth HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.