Dallas HousingGauge — September 28, 2026 | RED 43

Jake: Pending sales in Dallas are down 8.8% from a year ago. We'll talk about why that number tends to move before prices do.

Jake: You're listening to the Dallas HousingGauge, week of September 28, 2026. I'm Jake.

Nora: And I'm Nora.

Jake: A reminder that we're AI voices. The numbers are real, and you can check every one at housinggauge.com.

Jake: Let's start with the scoreboard.

Nora: 43, and RED. That's unchanged from last week. The path: 58 a year ago, 50 three months ago, 43 now.

Jake: That's a lot of ground lost.

Jake: Let's start with that number. Pending sales, homes going under contract, are down 8.8% from a year ago, while closed sales are down 2.8%. Why lead with contracts instead of sales?

Nora: Because a closed sale is history and a pending sale is a promise. Closings trail contracts by a month or two, so pending sales are the closest thing a market has to a look ahead. Right now that look ahead shows fewer households willing to commit.

Jake: Fewer people want to move?

Nora: Not necessarily. Often it's the same people, waiting: for a lower rate, a better listing, or more certainty about their own jobs. Demand that waits doesn't disappear. But it doesn't pay a seller's mortgage, either.

Jake: So if contracts pick back up, that's the first sign something's turning.

Nora: That's the first place you'd see it. Prices are usually the last.

Jake: How does Dallas compare with the other markets we track?

Nora: Two things. The first is how fast homes sell. Homes in Dallas sell for 96.9% of their list price, the lowest of the 10 markets we track. In the typical market we track, it's at 98.0%. Buyers here negotiate more off the asking price than almost anywhere we track.

Jake: And the second?

Nora: Jobs. Local employment in Dallas is down 0.2% from a year ago, near the top of the 9 markets we track with this figure. The typical market on our list is down 1.0%. Job growth is the slow engine under housing demand.

Jake: Those numbers say more about Dallas than the score does on its own.

Jake: Let's talk about who can actually afford Dallas.

Nora: On local paychecks alone, not many. Principal and interest on a typical home would take 40.8% of the median household income, and the median home costs 6.4 times that income.

Jake: Then who's buying?

Nora: People whose buying power doesn't come from a local salary alone: owners trading up with years of equity, dual high earners, buyers with savings or family help. That's how a stretched affordability number can sit alongside steady sales. The market is being priced by a narrower group than the median household.

Jake: Which makes it more sensitive if that group pulls back.

Nora: Exactly. When rates or financial markets move, that's the group that reacts, and you'd see it in sales first.

Jake: Who is Dallas really competing with for buyers?

Nora: Its own suburbs. A lot of the region's new building happens farther out, where land is cheaper, and builders there can offer incentives an individual seller in the city can't. That's part of the backdrop when 39.6% of Dallas listings have had a price cut.

Jake: The new house down the highway sets the bar for the older one in town.

Jake: For someone thinking long term about Dallas, how long do you need to own for buying to make sense?

Nora: Longer than most people think. Buying and selling both cost real money: agent commissions, closing costs, moving, the repairs you do before you list. Appreciation has to cover all of that before you're ahead. Here, prices are down 0.1% from a year ago, which wouldn't cover those costs quickly.

Jake: So a short stay is a bet on fast appreciation.

Nora: Pretty much. The longer you stay, the more time the math has to work and the less any single year matters. It's one more reason to think about where you want to live, not just where prices are going.

Jake: The cash question, Dallas edition.

Nora: Here the rent holds its own: 4.3% of the price a year before expenses, against 3.88% for cash-like savings. Expenses and price risk still apply. Not advice.

Jake: Is there a path back to YELLOW for Dallas?

Nora: It's close. Locally, the decline in pending sales narrowing to less than 2.5%. Or from the national side, mortgage rates falling below 6.55%. Either one alone would likely be enough.

Jake: Give me the one thing to remember.

Nora: Watch contracts, not closings. Pending sales are the closest thing this market has to a look ahead.

Jake: That wraps up the Dallas HousingGauge for the week of September 28, 2026.

Nora: The fine print: our score describes market conditions only. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell, and not individualized financial advice. Sources and charts live at housinggauge.com.

Jake: Thanks for joining us. Until next week.