Dallas HousingGauge — September 14, 2026 | YELLOW 46

Welcome to the Dallas HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of September 14, 2026.

Here is the headline. Dallas's HousingGauge score is 46 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.24 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.76%, versus 6.52% three months ago.

Second: Score down 3 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 49 to 46 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

Third: Pending sales down 8.8% year over year. Contract signings are a leading indicator of closed sales over the next one to two months.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 28 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.76%, up 0.65 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 67 out of 100. Inventory is 3.9% lower than a year ago (4,373 active listings), with 5.0 months of supply. Homes take a median 50 days to sell at 96.9% of list price, and 39.6% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 59 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.23%, 0.22 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 35 out of 100. Pending sales are 8.8% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 2.8% lower. Days on market are 4.2% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 49 out of 100. The median home costs 6.4 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 39.7% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.9% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 48 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.6% and employment is down 0.2% year over year. The local job market is steady.

Rental Economics scores 31 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.3% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 23.5). Rents are up 0.3% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (45 to 46). Over 13 weeks it is down 3 points, from 49 to 46. The largest contributors were Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points) and Demand Trend (−2.3 points).

So what would move Dallas into the green? It is 24 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 18 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.60% (now 6.76%); pending sales grow more than 6.5% year over year (now −8.8%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.95 pts (now +0.22 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.40 pts over three months (now +0.24 pts); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 5.0 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Any one of these could push the score down a status level: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.20% (now 6.76%); pending sales fall more than 14.5% year over year (now −8.8%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.35 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.80 pts (now +0.22 pts).

That is the Dallas HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.