Dallas HousingGauge — July 6, 2026 | YELLOW 51

Welcome to the Dallas HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 6, 2026.

Here is the headline. Dallas's HousingGauge score is 51 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and rental yields are thin.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Median price up 8.9% from a year ago. The median sale price is $495,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 4.6% higher than a year ago.

Second: Score down 3 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 54 to 51 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Supply & Buyer Leverage (−4.2 points).

Third: Inventory down 5.3% year over year. 4,491 homes are listed for sale, equal to 4.9 months of supply.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 44 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.43%, up 0.28 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 60 out of 100. Inventory is 5.3% lower than a year ago (4,491 active listings), with 4.9 months of supply. Homes take a median 40 days to sell at 97.5% of list price, and 36.9% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 72 out of 100. The real policy rate is 0.59%, 0.50 points below the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a accommodative stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months. Policy is a tailwind for credit conditions, though it does not by itself move home prices.

Demand Trend scores 50 out of 100. Pending sales are 1.0% lower than a year ago and closed sales are about the same. Days on market are 5.3% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 34 out of 100. The median home costs 7.0 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 42.3% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 4.6% higher than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Local Economy scores 59 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.1% and employment is up 0.3% year over year. The local job market is steady.

Rental Economics scores 27 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 3.9% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 25.9). Rents are up 0.3% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (50 to 51). Over 13 weeks it is down 3 points, from 54 to 51. The largest contributors were Supply & Buyer Leverage (−4.2 points) and Demand Trend (+2.9 points).

So what would move Dallas into the green? It is 19 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 16 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.30% (now 6.43%); pending sales grow more than 14.0% year over year (now −1.0%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 4.9 months); mortgage rates fall more than 0.50 pts over three months (now −0.03 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now −0.50 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 6.90% (now 6.43%); pending sales fall more than 7.5% year over year (now −1.0%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.30 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above −0.05 pts (now −0.50 pts); and months of supply falls below 4.0 months (now 4.9 months).

That is the Dallas HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.