Austin metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | YELLOW 50

Welcome to the Austin metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Austin metro's HousingGauge score is 50 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 14 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 64 to 50 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Median price down 6.6% from a year ago. The median sale price is $412,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 9.6% lower than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 73 out of 100. Inventory is 1.4% lower than a year ago (14,236 active listings), with 5.5 months of supply. Homes take a median 86 days to sell at 97.5% of list price, and 24.8% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 55 out of 100. Pending sales are 2.3% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 1.5% lower. Days on market are 1.2% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 85 out of 100. The median home costs 4.1 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 26.9% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 9.6% lower than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Rental Economics scores 36 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.7% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 21.2). Rents are flat year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (53 to 50). Over 13 weeks it is down 14 points, from 64 to 50. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Demand Trend (−3.5 points).

So what would move Austin metro into the green? It is 19 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 18 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +2.3%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 5.5 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.65% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 3.0% year over year (now +2.3%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.50 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.60 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 4.7 months (now 5.5 months).

That is the Austin metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.