Nashville metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | YELLOW 45

Welcome to the Nashville metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Nashville metro's HousingGauge score is 45 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 13 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 58 to 45 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Pending sales down 4.4% year over year. Contract signings are a leading indicator of closed sales over the next one to two months.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 68 out of 100. Inventory is 2.9% higher than a year ago (13,105 active listings), with 4.9 months of supply. Homes take a median 71 days to sell at 97.8% of list price, and 20.1% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 44 out of 100. Pending sales are 4.4% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 0.9% lower. Days on market are 2.9% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 57 out of 100. The median home costs 5.6 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 36.9% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.7% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 37 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.5% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 22.1). Rents are up 0.8% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is down 2 points from last week's report (47 to 45). Over 13 weeks it is down 13 points, from 58 to 45. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Nashville metro into the green? It is 25 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 20 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 11.0% year over year (now −4.4%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 4.9 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Any one of these could push the score down a status level: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.30% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 5.0% year over year (now −4.4%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.25 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.25 pts (now +0.23 pts).

That is the Nashville metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.