Memphis metro, Tennessee

Welcome to the Memphis metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Memphis metro's HousingGauge score is 48 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 8 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 56 to 48 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 47 days to sell, 20.5% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 61 out of 100. Inventory is 6.5% higher than a year ago (5,342 active listings), with 4.5 months of supply. Homes take a median 47 days to sell at 97.0% of list price, and 21.3% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 55 out of 100. Pending sales are 3.0% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 4.0% higher. Days on market are 20.5% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 70 out of 100. The median home costs 4.5 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 29.6% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 0.2% higher than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Rental Economics scores 52 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.6% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 17.8). Rents are up 1.0% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 8 points, from 56 to 48. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Memphis metro into the green? It is 22 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 20 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +3.0%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 4.5 months); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.50% (now 7.28%); pending sales growth slows below 0.0% year over year (now +3.0%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.40 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.45 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 4.0 months (now 4.5 months).

That is the Memphis metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.