Lehigh Valley HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | RED 38

Welcome to the Lehigh Valley HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Lehigh Valley's HousingGauge score is 38 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score down 20 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 58 to 38 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Demand Trend (−7.2 points).

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Third: Median price up 10.0% from a year ago. The median sale price is $385,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 6.4% higher than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 26 out of 100. Inventory is 5.1% higher than a year ago (1,434 active listings), with 1.9 months of supply. Homes take a median 16 days to sell at 100.3% of list price, and 18.0% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 40 out of 100. Pending sales are 9.5% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 1.1% higher. Days on market are 5.9% shorter than a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 62 out of 100. The median home costs 4.6 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 29.9% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 6.4% higher than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 63 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.8% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 17.3). Rents are up 3.0% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 6 points from last week's report (44 to 38). Over 13 weeks it is down 20 points, from 58 to 38. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (−7.2 points) and Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

So what would move Lehigh Valley into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.90% (now 7.28%); pending sales decline less than 4.5% year over year (now −9.5%); the Fed keeps cutting over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.15 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 2.7 months (now 1.9 months); and mortgage rates rise less than 0.30 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.65% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 14.5% year over year (now −9.5%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.50 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.60 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.5 months (now 1.9 months).

That is the Lehigh Valley HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.