Dayton metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | YELLOW 49

Welcome to the Dayton metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Dayton metro's HousingGauge score is 49 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 13 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 62 to 49 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Inventory up 17.9% year over year. 2,340 homes are listed for sale, equal to 2.6 months of supply.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 50 out of 100. Inventory is 17.9% higher than a year ago (2,340 active listings), with 2.6 months of supply. Homes take a median 39 days to sell at 98.1% of list price, and 23.7% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 59 out of 100. Pending sales are 2.1% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 2.6% higher. Days on market are 2.6% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 82 out of 100. The median home costs 3.6 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 23.3% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 1.6% higher than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Rental Economics scores 69 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 6.3% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 15.8). Rents are up 2.7% year over year. Rental economics are comparatively strong.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (52 to 49). Over 13 weeks it is down 13 points, from 62 to 49. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Dayton metro into the green? It is 20 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 20 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +2.1%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 4.9 months (now 2.6 months); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.60% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 2.0% year over year (now +2.1%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 2.0 months (now 2.6 months).

That is the Dayton metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.