Syracuse metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | RED 39

Welcome to the Syracuse metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Syracuse metro's HousingGauge score is 39 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score down 15 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 54 to 39 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Third: Median price up 9.1% from a year ago. The median sale price is $300,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 5.6% higher than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 15 out of 100. Inventory is 2.3% higher than a year ago (1,209 active listings), with 1.9 months of supply. Homes take a median 18 days to sell at 104.3% of list price, and 15.2% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 49 out of 100. Pending sales are 3.4% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 5.5% higher. Days on market are 12.5% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 71 out of 100. The median home costs 4.0 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 26.1% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 5.6% higher than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Rental Economics scores 74 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 6.4% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 15.6). Rents are up 3.5% year over year. Rental economics are comparatively strong.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (42 to 39). Over 13 weeks it is down 15 points, from 54 to 39. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Syracuse metro into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.95% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 0.5% year over year (now −3.4%); the Fed keeps cutting over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.10 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 2.5 months (now 1.9 months); and mortgage rates rise less than 0.30 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.65% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 8.0% year over year (now −3.4%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.50 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.60 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.5 months (now 1.9 months).

That is the Syracuse metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.