Hudson Valley HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | RED 41

Welcome to the Hudson Valley HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Hudson Valley's HousingGauge score is 41 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score down 16 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 57 to 41 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Third: Median price up 9.6% from a year ago. The median sale price is $515,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 6.0% higher than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 48 out of 100. Inventory is 15.7% higher than a year ago (2,092 active listings), with 3.8 months of supply. Homes take a median 40 days to sell at 100.7% of list price, and 17.1% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 37 out of 100. Pending sales are 8.9% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 1.1% lower. Days on market are about the same as a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 53 out of 100. The median home costs 5.2 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 34.4% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 6.0% higher than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 59 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.2% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 19.1). Rents are up 3.5% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (44 to 41). Over 13 weeks it is down 16 points, from 57 to 41. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Hudson Valley into the yellow? It is close: any one of these would likely do it on its own: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.30% (now 7.28%); and pending sales grow more than 4.5% year over year (now −8.9%).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.60% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 13.5% year over year (now −8.9%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 3.1 months (now 3.8 months).

That is the Hudson Valley HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.