Worcester metro, Massachusetts

Welcome to the Worcester metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Worcester metro's HousingGauge score is 41 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 12 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 53 to 41 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Inventory up 22.5% year over year. 1,966 homes are listed for sale, equal to 2.6 months of supply.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 41 out of 100. Inventory is 22.5% higher than a year ago (1,966 active listings), with 2.6 months of supply. Homes take a median 30 days to sell at 100.3% of list price, and 17.6% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 50 out of 100. Pending sales are 0.2% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 1.0% higher. Days on market are 11.1% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 60 out of 100. The median home costs 5.1 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 33.8% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 0.8% higher than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 47 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.2% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 19.4). Rents are up 1.2% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 1 point from last week's report (42 to 41). Over 13 weeks it is down 12 points, from 53 to 41. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Worcester metro into the yellow? It is close: any one of these would likely do it on its own: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.35% (now 7.28%); and pending sales grow more than 12.5% year over year (now −0.2%).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.60% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 4.5% year over year (now −0.2%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.9 months (now 2.6 months).

That is the Worcester metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.