City · Marion County · Indianapolis–Carmel–Greenwood metro
Indianapolis, Indiana
HousingGauge Score
49
−7 over 13 weeks
Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.
- 1 wk
- 0
- 1 mo
- −4
- 3 mo
- −7
- 1 yr
- −14
- 5 yr
- −16
YELLOW since Dec 18, 2023Last updated September 29, 2026Data for the week of September 28, 2026
Score history
33 → 49 since Oct 9, 2023
GREEN 70–100YELLOW 45–69RED 0–44
Key metrics
This week's 5-minute market report
All episodes →Indianapolis HousingGauge — September 28, 2026 | YELLOW 49
September 29, 2026 · 5:28 · Narrated by Zoe and Claire (AI hosts)
Key takeaways
- 1
Mortgage rates up 0.54 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.03%, versus 6.49% three months ago.
- 2
Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 24 days to sell, 33.3% longer than a year ago.
- 3
Score down 7 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 56 to 49 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−4.3 points).
Read the transcript
Zoe: There are 16.6% more homes for sale in Indianapolis than a year ago. We'll get into who that helps, and why time is quietly switching sides.
Zoe: Welcome to the Indianapolis HousingGauge for the week of September 28, 2026. I'm Zoe.
Claire: And I'm Claire. Lots to get to.
Zoe: As always, Claire and I are AI-generated voices, and every figure comes straight from HousingGauge's data. The sources are on housinggauge.com.
Zoe: First, the scoreboard.
Claire: This week it's 49 for Indianapolis, a YELLOW reading. No change on the week. Back in the summer it was 56, and this time last year, 63.
Zoe: So a slow fade over the past few months.
Zoe: So, 3,439 homes for sale in Indianapolis, 16.6% more than a year ago. That's 3.1 months of supply. What does that actually change?
Claire: Who's in a hurry. Every listing that lingers is a seller who priced for last year's market and a buyer who decided to wait. In a tight market the buyer is the one rushing. As listings pile up, it's the seller. You can see it in time on market, too: the median home takes 24 days to sell, 33.3% longer than a year ago.
Zoe: So buyers can ask for more.
Claire: Questions that go unasked in a hot market start getting asked again. Will you cover closing costs, will you fix the roof, will you come down. The interesting thing to watch is whether these listings sell or simply sit. Sitting means the shift is real. Selling quickly means it was just a swell.
Zoe: What makes Indianapolis different from the other markets on our list?
Claire: Two things. The first is price. The median home in Indianapolis sells for $260,000, the lowest of the 10 markets we track. For comparison, the median market we track is at $465,000. A low price of entry widens the pool of people who can buy, which tends to make a market steadier.
Zoe: Okay. And the other?
Claire: How fast homes sell. The median home in Indianapolis takes 24 days to sell, the shortest of the 10 markets we track. For comparison, the median market we track is at 47 days. Homes move fast here, so hesitation costs buyers.
Zoe: So Indianapolis isn't just a score. It has its own shape.
Zoe: If 43.8% of listings in Indianapolis have been cut, why are homes still selling for 98.0% of asking?
Claire: Because asking has already moved. The cut is the negotiation; the sale is the handshake afterward. By the time an offer comes in, most of the give has already happened on the listing page.
Zoe: So buyers should look at the price history, not just the price.
Claire: Exactly. How long a home has sat, and how many times it's been cut, tells you more about your leverage than the asking price does.
Zoe: Indianapolis rarely makes headlines for wild price swings. Is that a weakness?
Claire: It may be a strength. Markets that run hot have more to give back when conditions turn. Here, prices are up 3.9% from a year ago, and a typical payment takes 25.1% of the median income. That's not a market stretched to its limit.
Zoe: Less excitement, less to unwind.
Zoe: For renters in Indianapolis wondering whether to buy, what's the simplest way to think about it?
Claire: Start with one ratio. The median home here costs 15.6 times a year of typical rent, which is $1,389 a month. Rents are up 2.5% from a year ago. The higher that ratio, the more you pay for the privilege of owning rather than for shelter itself.
Zoe: So a high ratio favors renting?
Claire: On pure cost, usually. But owning buys things renting doesn't: control, stability, a forced savings plan. The ratio tells you the price of those things. Whether it's worth paying is a personal decision, not a market call.
Zoe: And the pile-of-cash question, in one breath?
Claire: Rental income here: 6.4% a year before costs. Cash: about 3.88%. The rent wins on paper, but only before expenses and only if prices hold. Not advice, just the numbers.
Zoe: What would have to go right for Indianapolis to turn GREEN?
Claire: 20 points is a big gap. Even if pending sales growing more than 15.0% from a year earlier and mortgage rates falling below 5.90% both happened, Indianapolis wouldn't quite get there.
Zoe: What could tip Indianapolis into RED?
Claire: Pending sales falling more than 5.0% from a year earlier and mortgage rates rising above 7.35% at the same time would put it in RED.
Zoe: If people remember one thing from this week?
Claire: When listings pile up, the patient side of the table gains leverage. Right now that's buyers.
Zoe: That's all for Indianapolis this week, the week of September 28, 2026.
Claire: For the record: the score describes conditions, not what anyone should do. It isn't a recommendation to buy or sell, or individualized financial advice. Everything we cited is at housinggauge.com.
Zoe: Thanks for listening, and see you next week.
Why Indianapolis is YELLOW
Seven components, each scored 0–100 from Indianapolis's own data, weighted into the total. How scoring works
Mortgage Conditions · 20% of score
Headwind18/100
The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.03%, up 0.65 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.
Contributes 3.6 of the 49 points.
Supply & Buyer Leverage · 20% of score
Mixed52/100
Inventory is 16.6% higher than a year ago (3,439 active listings), with 3.1 months of supply. Homes take a median 24 days to sell at 98.0% of list price, and 43.8% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.
Contributes 10.4 of the 49 points.
Monetary Conditions · 15% of score
Mixed53/100
The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.
Contributes 7.9 of the 49 points.
Demand Trend · 15% of score
Mixed48/100
Pending sales are 0.4% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 6.5% higher. Days on market are 33.3% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.
Contributes 7.2 of the 49 points.
Valuation & Affordability · 10% of score
Supportive78/100
The median home costs 3.9 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 25.1% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 0.6% higher than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.
Contributes 7.8 of the 49 points.
Local Economy · 10% of score
Mixed52/100
Local unemployment is 3.6% and employment is down 0.8% year over year. The local job market is steady.
Contributes 5.2 of the 49 points.
Rental Economics · 10% of score
Supportive68/100
A year of median rent equals 6.4% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 15.6). Rents are up 2.5% year over year. Rental economics are comparatively strong.
Contributes 6.8 of the 49 points.
Why the score changed
The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 7 points, from 56 to 49. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−4.3 points) and Monetary Conditions (−2.9 points).
What would turn Indianapolis GREEN?
Indianapolis is 21 points from GREEN (70) — that would take a broad shift. Even these changes together would add only about 19 points:
- 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.90% · now 7.03%
- Pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year · now −0.4%
- The Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months · now +0.24 pts
- Policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts · now +0.23 pts
- Months of supply rises above 5.4 months · now 3.1 months
- Mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months · now +0.54 pts
And keep these strengths
- Unemployment stays below 5.5% · now 3.6%
- Payment-to-income stays below 37.5% · now 25.1%
What would make conditions worse?
Together, these shifts would push Indianapolis down to RED:
- 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.35% · now 7.03%
- Pending sales fall more than 5.0% year over year · now −0.4%
- The Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months · now +0.24 pts
- Policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts · now +0.23 pts
- Months of supply falls below 2.4 months · now 3.1 months
Market data over time
Median sale price, nominal and in today's dollars (CPI-adjusted).
- Nominal$260,000
- Real (today's $)$260,000
View as table
| Week of | Nominal | Real (today's $) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | $260,000 | $260,000 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | $255,000 | $255,000 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | $240,000 | $245,000 |
| Dec 29, 2025 | $240,000 | $247,000 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | $250,000 | $258,000 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | $250,000 | $261,000 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | $239,000 | $250,000 |
| Dec 30, 2024 | $240,000 | $253,000 |
All metrics & sources
Show
| Prices | ||
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $260,000 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Median sale price change (YoY) | +3.9% | Calculated |
| Median price per square foot | $143 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Price per sq ft change (YoY) | −0.5% | Calculated |
| Real median sale price change (YoY) | +0.6% | Calculated |
| Real price per sq ft change (YoY) | −3.7% | Calculated |
| Supply & leverage | ||
| Active inventory | 3,439 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Inventory change (YoY) | +16.6% | Calculated |
| Months of supply | 3.1 months | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Median days on market | 24 days | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.0% | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Listings with price cuts | 43.8% | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Demand | ||
| Days on market change (YoY) | +33.3% | Calculated |
| Closed sales | 3,433 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Closed sales change (YoY) | +6.5% | Calculated |
| Pending sales | 3,515 | Redfin, a national real estate brokerage · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Pending sales change (YoY) | −0.4% | Calculated |
| Rents | ||
| Typical rent | $1,389 | Zillow Research (ZORI) · Aug 31, 2026 |
| Rent change (YoY) | +2.5% | Calculated |
| Price-to-rent ratio | 15.6× | Calculated |
| Gross rental yield | 6.4% | Calculated |
| Affordability | ||
| Median household income | $66,200 | U.S. Census Bureau · Dec 31, 2024 |
| Price-to-income ratio | 3.9× | Calculated |
| Payment-to-income | 25.1% | Calculated |
| Local economy | ||
| Unemployment rate | 3.6% | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Jul 1, 2026 |
| Employment growth (YoY) | −0.8% | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Jul 1, 2026 |
| Financing | ||
| 30-year mortgage rate | 7.03% | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Sep 24, 2026 |
| Mortgage rate change (3 mo) | +0.54 pts | Calculated |
| Mortgage rate change (6 mo) | +0.65 pts | Calculated |
| Monetary policy | ||
| Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) | 334.1 | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Aug 1, 2026 |
| CPI inflation (YoY) | 3.4% | Calculated |
| Expected inflation | 2.64% | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Sep 1, 2026 |
| Fed funds rate | 3.88% | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Sep 27, 2026 |
| Fed funds change (6 mo) | +0.24 pts | Calculated |
| Neutral rate (r-star) | 1.01% | Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Apr 1, 2026 |
| Real policy rate | 1.24% | Calculated |
| Policy gap | +0.23 pts | Calculated |
| Construction | ||
| Housing starts (U.S.) | 1,275K | FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Aug 1, 2026 |
Indianapolis housing market FAQ
What is the HousingGauge score for Indianapolis right now?
Indianapolis, IN scores 49 out of 100 (YELLOW) as of the week of September 28, 2026. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.
Is Indianapolis a buyer's market or a seller's market?
Conditions are fairly balanced between buyers and sellers. HousingGauge's Supply & Buyer Leverage component is 52 out of 100: there are 3.1 months of supply and homes sell in a median 24 days at 98.0% of list price.
How affordable is Indianapolis?
The median home costs 3.9 times the median household income, and principal and interest on a typical purchase (20% down, 30-year fixed) would take 25.1% of that income at current rates.
How do mortgage rates affect Indianapolis's score?
Mortgage conditions carry 20% of the score. With the 30-year fixed rate at 7.03%, the Mortgage Conditions component scores 18 out of 100.
What would turn Indianapolis GREEN?
Indianapolis needs a score of 70 to be GREEN. The biggest levers right now: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.90% (now 7.03%); Pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now −0.4%); The Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts).
How often is the score updated?
Weekly. Each week HousingGauge refreshes the underlying data, recalculates every component score with the same published model, and records the result so you can see how the market has moved.
Data sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York — 1 metrics, latest observation April 1, 2026
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — 5 metrics, latest observation September 27, 2026
- Zillow Research (ZORI) — 1 metrics, latest observation August 31, 2026
- Redfin, a national real estate brokerage — 9 metrics, latest observation August 31, 2026
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — 2 metrics, latest observation July 1, 2026
- U.S. Census Bureau — 1 metrics, latest observation December 31, 2024
Scores are calculated by HousingGauge's published model (version v1) from the data above. Data coverage this week: 100% of model weight. Scores describe market conditions; they are not forecasts or individualized advice. Methodology