Chicago metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | YELLOW 46

Welcome to the Chicago metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Chicago metro's HousingGauge score is 46 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 9 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 55 to 46 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Rents up 4.9% year over year. Typical rent is $2,210 a month, for a gross rental yield of 6.8%.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 40 out of 100. Inventory is 4.4% lower than a year ago (24,065 active listings), with 2.9 months of supply. Homes take a median 53 days to sell at 99.9% of list price, and 12.4% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 48 out of 100. Pending sales are 2.9% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 1.1% lower. Days on market are 2.7% shorter than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 72 out of 100. The median home costs 4.3 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 28.0% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 1.7% higher than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Rental Economics scores 86 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 6.8% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 14.6). Rents are up 4.9% year over year. Rental economics are comparatively strong.

The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 9 points, from 55 to 46. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Chicago metro into the green? It is 24 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 21 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 12.5% year over year (now −2.9%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 5.2 months (now 2.9 months); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Any one of these could push the score down a status level: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.70% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 8.0% year over year (now −2.9%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.60 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.75 pts (now +0.23 pts).

That is the Chicago metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.