Boise metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | RED 41

Welcome to the Boise metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Boise metro's HousingGauge score is 41 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score down 16 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 57 to 41 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Third: Inventory down 21.2% year over year. 3,417 homes are listed for sale, equal to 2.3 months of supply.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 29 out of 100. Inventory is 21.2% lower than a year ago (3,417 active listings), with 2.3 months of supply. Homes take a median 40 days to sell at 99.5% of list price, and 22.1% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 70 out of 100. Pending sales are 0.5% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 13.4% higher. Days on market are 11.1% shorter than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 44 out of 100. The median home costs 6.2 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 40.5% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.5% higher than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Rental Economics scores 56 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.3% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 23.0). Rents are up 6.3% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (44 to 41). Over 13 weeks it is down 16 points, from 57 to 41. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Demand Trend (−4.4 points).

So what would move Boise metro into the yellow? It is close: any one of these would likely do it on its own: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.25% (now 7.28%); and pending sales grow more than 13.5% year over year (now −0.5%).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.60% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 5.0% year over year (now −0.5%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.6 months (now 2.3 months).

That is the Boise metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.