Honolulu metro, Hawaii

Welcome to the Honolulu metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Honolulu metro's HousingGauge score is 48 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score down 15 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 63 to 48 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Third: Rents up 4.6% year over year. Typical rent is $3,020 a month, for a gross rental yield of 4.7%.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 73 out of 100. Inventory is 2.1% lower than a year ago (3,998 active listings), with 6.3 months of supply. Homes take a median 81 days to sell at 98.3% of list price, and 14.1% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 60 out of 100. Pending sales are 0.5% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 1.4% higher. Days on market are 12.0% shorter than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 32 out of 100. The median home costs 7.2 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 47.4% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 0.2% lower than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Rental Economics scores 59 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.7% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 21.1). Rents are up 4.6% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 2 points from last week's report (50 to 48). Over 13 weeks it is down 15 points, from 63 to 48. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Honolulu metro into the green? It is 22 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 20 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +0.5%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts); and closed sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +1.4%).

And what could make conditions worse? Any one of these could push the score down a status level: pending sales fall more than 11.0% year over year (now +0.5%); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +1.35 pts (now +0.23 pts).

That is the Honolulu metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.