Tampa HousingGauge — September 21, 2026 | RED 44

Welcome to the Tampa HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of September 21, 2026.

Here is the headline. Tampa's HousingGauge score is 44 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Tampa turned RED. The score moved from 47 to 44, crossing from YELLOW into RED.

Second: Median price up 10.0% from a year ago. The median sale price is $479,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 6.5% higher than a year ago.

Third: Mortgage rates up 0.48 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.95%, versus 6.47% three months ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 19 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.95%, up 0.73 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 69 out of 100. Inventory is 7.4% higher than a year ago (2,353 active listings), with 4.9 months of supply. Homes take a median 46 days to sell at 96.9% of list price, and 42.0% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 52 out of 100. Pending sales are 1.1% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 3.7% higher. Days on market are 21.1% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 38 out of 100. The median home costs 6.3 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 40.3% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 6.5% higher than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Local Economy scores 37 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.9% and employment is down 1.0% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 34 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.9% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 20.4). Rents are down 0.8% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (47 to 44). Over 13 weeks it is down 7 points, from 51 to 44. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−3.8 points) and Supply & Buyer Leverage (+3.3 points).

So what would move Tampa into the yellow? It is close: any one of these would likely do it on its own: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.85% (now 6.95%); pending sales grow more than 2.5% year over year (now +1.1%); fed rate hikes stay under 0.15 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below +0.10 pts (now +0.23 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.30% (now 6.95%); pending sales fall more than 4.0% year over year (now +1.1%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.50 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.60 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 4.2 months (now 4.9 months).

That is the Tampa HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.