Tampa HousingGauge — August 31, 2026 | YELLOW 48

Welcome to the Tampa HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of August 31, 2026.

Here is the headline. Tampa's HousingGauge score is 48 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Median price up 5.2% from a year ago. The median sale price is $474,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 1.9% higher than a year ago.

Second: Score down 3 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 51 to 48 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Monetary Conditions (−4.2 points).

Third: Mortgage rates up 0.13 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.66%, versus 6.53% three months ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 31 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.66%, up 0.68 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 58 out of 100. Inventory is 1.8% lower than a year ago (2,236 active listings), with 4.2 months of supply. Homes take a median 36 days to sell at 96.9% of list price, and 40.8% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 59 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.23%, 0.22 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 64 out of 100. Pending sales are 2.7% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 8.1% higher. Days on market are 5.9% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 46 out of 100. The median home costs 6.3 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 38.7% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 1.9% higher than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 37 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.9% and employment is down 1.0% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 34 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.0% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 20.1). Rents are down 0.8% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is down 1 point from last week's report (49 to 48). Over 13 weeks it is down 3 points, from 51 to 48. The largest contributors were Monetary Conditions (−4.2 points) and Demand Trend (+1.5 points).

So what would move Tampa into the green? It is 21 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 18 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.50% (now 6.66%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +2.7%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.95 pts (now +0.22 pts); months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 4.2 months); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.50 pts over three months (now +0.13 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Any one of these could push the score down a status level: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.75% (now 6.66%); and pending sales fall more than 12.0% year over year (now +2.7%).

That is the Tampa HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.