Tampa HousingGauge — August 10, 2026 | YELLOW 48

Welcome to the Tampa HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of August 10, 2026.

Here is the headline. Tampa's HousingGauge score is 48 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.32 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.69%, versus 6.37% three months ago.

Second: Inventory down 12.5% year over year. 1,988 homes are listed for sale, equal to 3.7 months of supply.

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 37 days to sell, 15.6% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 28 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.69%, up 0.58 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 51 out of 100. Inventory is 12.5% lower than a year ago (1,988 active listings), with 3.7 months of supply. Homes take a median 37 days to sell at 96.9% of list price, and 40.6% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 61 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.15 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 69 out of 100. Pending sales are 8.6% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 6.8% higher. Days on market are 15.6% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 51 out of 100. The median home costs 6.2 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 38.3% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 1.9% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 42 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.8% and employment is down 0.6% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 35 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.0% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 19.8). Rents are down 0.8% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 3 points, from 51 to 48. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+4.4 points) and Monetary Conditions (−2.7 points).

So what would move Tampa into the green? It is 21 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 16 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.55% (now 6.69%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now +0.15 pts); months of supply rises above 6.0 months (now 3.7 months); mortgage rates fall more than 0.30 pts over three months (now +0.32 pts); and pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +8.6%).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.00% (now 6.69%); pending sales growth slows below 5.0% year over year (now +8.6%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.20 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.45 pts (now +0.15 pts); and months of supply falls below 3.1 months (now 3.7 months).

That is the Tampa HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.