Tampa HousingGauge — July 6, 2026 | YELLOW 53

Welcome to the Tampa HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 6, 2026.

Here is the headline. Tampa's HousingGauge score is 53 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have improved over the past three months, but financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Inventory down 15.4% year over year. 1,957 homes are listed for sale, equal to 3.9 months of supply.

Second: Score up 4 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 49 to 53 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Demand Trend (+3.9 points).

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 41 days to sell, 13.9% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 44 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.43%, up 0.28 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 53 out of 100. Inventory is 15.4% lower than a year ago (1,957 active listings), with 3.9 months of supply. Homes take a median 41 days to sell at 96.8% of list price, and 39.5% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 72 out of 100. The real policy rate is 0.59%, 0.50 points below the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a accommodative stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months. Policy is a tailwind for credit conditions, though it does not by itself move home prices.

Demand Trend scores 59 out of 100. Pending sales are 5.1% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 1.8% higher. Days on market are 13.9% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 61 out of 100. The median home costs 5.8 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 35.2% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 5.7% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 40 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.7% and employment is down 0.8% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 39 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.4% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 18.7). Rents are down 0.9% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (52 to 53). Over 13 weeks it is up 4 points, from 49 to 53. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+3.9 points) and Supply & Buyer Leverage (−3.4 points).

So what would move Tampa into the green? It is 17 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 15 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.30% (now 6.43%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); months of supply rises above 6.2 months (now 3.9 months); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +5.1%); mortgage rates fall more than 0.50 pts over three months (now −0.03 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now −0.50 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.05% (now 6.43%); pending sales fall more than 3.0% year over year (now +5.1%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.40 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.10 pts (now −0.50 pts); and months of supply falls below 2.7 months (now 3.9 months).

That is the Tampa HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.