Tampa Bay HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | YELLOW 45

Welcome to the Tampa Bay HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Tampa Bay's HousingGauge score is 45 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 8 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 53 to 45 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 68 days to sell, 30.8% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 71 out of 100. Inventory is 3.1% higher than a year ago (20,869 active listings), with 5.0 months of supply. Homes take a median 68 days to sell at 96.9% of list price, and 25.1% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 30 out of 100. Pending sales are 5.3% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 4.7% lower. Days on market are 30.8% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 64 out of 100. The median home costs 5.1 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 33.6% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.2% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 54 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 6.3% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 15.8). Rents are down 0.1% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 1 point from last week's report (46 to 45). Over 13 weeks it is down 8 points, from 53 to 45. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Tampa Bay into the green? It is 24 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 20 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 10.0% year over year (now −5.3%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 5.0 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Any one of these could push the score down a status level: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.55% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 9.0% year over year (now −5.3%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts (now +0.23 pts).

That is the Tampa Bay HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.