Sarasota metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | YELLOW 51

Welcome to the Sarasota metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Sarasota metro's HousingGauge score is 51 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 8 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 59 to 51 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 74 days to sell, 8.8% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 69 out of 100. Inventory is 6.1% lower than a year ago (9,436 active listings), with 4.8 months of supply. Homes take a median 74 days to sell at 96.4% of list price, and 21.9% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 72 out of 100. Pending sales are 6.3% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 11.1% higher. Days on market are 8.8% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 61 out of 100. The median home costs 5.2 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 34.1% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 0.9% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 48 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 6.0% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 16.7). Rents are down 0.7% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 8 points, from 59 to 51. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Sarasota metro into the green? It is 19 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 18 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +6.3%); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 4.8 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.70% (now 7.28%); pending sales growth slows below 0.5% year over year (now +6.3%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.65 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 3.9 months (now 4.8 months).

That is the Sarasota metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.