Fort Myers–Cape Coral HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | YELLOW 51

Welcome to the Fort Myers–Cape Coral HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Fort Myers–Cape Coral's HousingGauge score is 51 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 9 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 60 to 51 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Inventory down 15.0% year over year. 10,250 homes are listed for sale, equal to 5.5 months of supply.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 71 out of 100. Inventory is 15.0% lower than a year ago (10,250 active listings), with 5.5 months of supply. Homes take a median 76 days to sell at 95.9% of list price, and 21.2% of listings have had a price cut. Buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 64 out of 100. Pending sales are 0.2% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 6.2% higher. Days on market are 11.6% shorter than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 70 out of 100. The median home costs 4.7 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 31.1% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.4% lower than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Rental Economics scores 51 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 6.2% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 16.2). Rents are down 0.4% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 9 points, from 60 to 51. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Fort Myers–Cape Coral into the green? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.20% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +0.2%); the Fed cuts more than 0.50 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.85 pts (now +0.23 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 5.5 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.75% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 5.5% year over year (now +0.2%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.70 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 4.6 months (now 5.5 months).

That is the Fort Myers–Cape Coral HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.