New Haven metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | RED 42

Welcome to the New Haven metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. New Haven metro's HousingGauge score is 42 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 9 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 51 to 42 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Median price up 10.3% from a year ago. The median sale price is $430,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 6.7% higher than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 38 out of 100. Inventory is 2.4% higher than a year ago (1,827 active listings), with 2.7 months of supply. Homes take a median 49 days to sell at 101.0% of list price, and 13.9% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 50 out of 100. Pending sales are 0.5% lower than a year ago and closed sales are about the same. Days on market are 8.9% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 57 out of 100. The median home costs 4.9 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 32.0% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 6.7% higher than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 64 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.8% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 17.2). Rents are up 3.1% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (41 to 42). Over 13 weeks it is down 9 points, from 51 to 42. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move New Haven metro into the yellow? It is close: any one of these would likely do it on its own: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.50% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 10.0% year over year (now −0.5%); the Fed cuts more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.80 pts (now +0.23 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.60% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 5.0% year over year (now −0.5%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 2.0 months (now 2.7 months).

That is the New Haven metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.