Stockton metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | RED 43

Welcome to the Stockton metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Stockton metro's HousingGauge score is 43 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 6 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 49 to 43 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points).

Third: Homes selling faster. The median home takes 41 days to sell, 18.0% shorter than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 38 out of 100. Inventory is 8.7% lower than a year ago (1,405 active listings), with 2.8 months of supply. Homes take a median 41 days to sell at 99.0% of list price, and 20.7% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 74 out of 100. Pending sales are 0.4% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 21.5% higher. Days on market are 18.0% shorter than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 52 out of 100. The median home costs 5.9 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 38.8% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 1.4% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Rental Economics scores 50 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.3% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 18.7). Rents are up 1.3% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (42 to 43). Over 13 weeks it is down 6 points, from 49 to 43. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−7.0 points) and Demand Trend (+5.0 points).

So what would move Stockton metro into the yellow? It is close: any one of these would likely do it on its own: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 7.00% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 3.5% year over year (now −0.4%); the Fed keeps cutting over six months (now +0.24 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.15 pts (now +0.23 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.60% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 5.0% year over year (now −0.4%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 2.1 months (now 2.8 months).

That is the Stockton metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.