South Lake Tahoe HousingGauge — September 21, 2026 | RED 44

Welcome to the South Lake Tahoe HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of September 21, 2026.

Here is the headline. South Lake Tahoe's HousingGauge score is 44 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: South Lake Tahoe turned RED. The score moved from 47 to 44, crossing from YELLOW into RED.

Second: Score down 9 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 53 to 44 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−4.2 points).

Third: Mortgage rates up 0.48 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.95%, versus 6.47% three months ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 19 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.95%, up 0.73 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 50 out of 100. Inventory is 18.0% lower than a year ago (164 active listings), with 4.0 months of supply. Homes take a median 56 days to sell at 97.9% of list price, and 23.6% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 65 out of 100. Pending sales are 4.0% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 0.8% higher. Days on market are 12.5% shorter than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 23 out of 100. The median home costs 7.8 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 49.3% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.7% higher than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Rental Economics scores 58 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.6% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 21.9). Rents are up 4.8% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 3 points from last week's report (47 to 44). Over 13 weeks it is down 9 points, from 53 to 44. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−4.2 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move South Lake Tahoe into the yellow? It is close: any one of these would likely do it on its own: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.75% (now 6.95%); pending sales grow more than 6.5% year over year (now +4.0%); fed rate hikes stay under 0.05 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.05 pts (now +0.23 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.30% (now 6.95%); pending sales fall more than 0.5% year over year (now +4.0%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.55 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 3.3 months (now 4.0 months).

That is the South Lake Tahoe HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.