South Lake Tahoe HousingGauge — July 27, 2026 | YELLOW 49

Welcome to the South Lake Tahoe HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 27, 2026.

Here is the headline. South Lake Tahoe's HousingGauge score is 49 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and prices are stretched relative to incomes.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Rents up 11.4% year over year. Typical rent is $2,596 a month, for a gross rental yield of 4.4%.

Second: Inventory down 28.9% year over year. 150 homes are listed for sale, equal to 5.0 months of supply.

Third: Median price up 10.2% from a year ago. The median sale price is $715,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 6.5% higher than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 31 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.58%, up 0.49 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 55 out of 100. Inventory is 28.9% lower than a year ago (150 active listings), with 5.0 months of supply. Homes take a median 48 days to sell at 97.3% of list price, and 25.8% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 61 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.15 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 79 out of 100. Pending sales are 19.1% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 4.2% lower. Days on market are 15.8% shorter than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 8 out of 100. The median home costs 8.7 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 53.3% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 6.5% higher than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Rental Economics scores 56 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.4% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 23.0). Rents are up 11.4% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is down 1 point from last week's report (50 to 49). Over 13 weeks it is down 6 points, from 55 to 49. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+9.0 points) and Monetary Conditions (−4.0 points).

So what would move South Lake Tahoe into the green? It is 20 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 18 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.45% (now 6.58%); the Fed cuts more than 0.75 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now +0.15 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.25 pts over three months (now +0.35 pts); closed sales grow more than 11.0% year over year (now −4.2%); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 5.0 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 6.90% (now 6.58%); pending sales growth slows below 10.5% year over year (now +19.1%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.20 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.50 pts (now +0.15 pts); and months of supply falls below 4.3 months (now 5.0 months).

That is the South Lake Tahoe HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.