South Lake Tahoe HousingGauge — July 6, 2026 | YELLOW 55

Welcome to the South Lake Tahoe HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 6, 2026.

Here is the headline. South Lake Tahoe's HousingGauge score is 55 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have improved over the past three months, but prices are stretched relative to incomes.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score up 10 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 45 to 55 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Demand Trend (+7.0 points).

Second: Rents up 9.5% year over year. Typical rent is $2,526 a month, for a gross rental yield of 4.4%.

Third: Inventory down 20.4% year over year. 160 homes are listed for sale, equal to 7.1 months of supply.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 44 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.43%, up 0.28 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 64 out of 100. Inventory is 20.4% lower than a year ago (160 active listings), with 7.1 months of supply. Homes take a median 50 days to sell at 96.8% of list price, and 21.3% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 72 out of 100. The real policy rate is 0.59%, 0.50 points below the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a accommodative stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months. Policy is a tailwind for credit conditions, though it does not by itself move home prices.

Demand Trend scores 62 out of 100. Pending sales are 2.1% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 1.4% lower. Days on market are 21.9% shorter than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 18 out of 100. The median home costs 8.5 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 51.1% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 1.3% higher than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Rental Economics scores 56 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 4.4% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 22.9). Rents are up 9.5% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (54 to 55). Over 13 weeks it is up 10 points, from 45 to 55. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+7.0 points) and Mortgage Conditions (+1.2 points).

So what would move South Lake Tahoe into the green? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.50% (now 6.43%); pending sales grow more than 14.5% year over year (now +2.1%); the Fed cuts more than 0.65 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.50 pts over three months (now −0.03 pts); closed sales grow more than 11.0% year over year (now −1.4%); and policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now −0.50 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.10% (now 6.43%); pending sales fall more than 6.5% year over year (now +2.1%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.45 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.15 pts (now −0.50 pts); and months of supply falls below 5.2 months (now 7.1 months).

That is the South Lake Tahoe HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.