Fresno metro HousingGauge — October 5, 2026 | RED 38

Welcome to the Fresno metro HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Fresno metro's HousingGauge score is 38 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score down 16 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 54 to 38 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−6.3 points).

Second: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Third: Median price down 4.2% from a year ago. The median sale price is $417,000; adjusted for inflation, prices are 7.3% lower than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 44 out of 100. Inventory is 2.5% lower than a year ago (1,710 active listings), with 3.2 months of supply. Homes take a median 45 days to sell at 98.8% of list price, and 19.0% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 38 out of 100. Pending sales are 10.3% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 1.6% lower. Days on market are 11.8% shorter than a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 63 out of 100. The median home costs 5.6 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 36.8% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 7.3% lower than a year ago. Affordability is stretched but not extreme.

Local Economy scores 2 out of 100. Local unemployment is 7.8% and employment is down 1.7% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 66 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.9% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 17.0). Rents are up 3.4% year over year. Rental economics are comparatively strong.

The score is down 2 points from last week's report (40 to 38). Over 13 weeks it is down 16 points, from 54 to 38. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−6.3 points) and Demand Trend (−3.6 points).

So what would move Fresno metro into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.85% (now 7.28%); pending sales decline less than 5.0% year over year (now −10.3%); the Fed cuts more than 0.05 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.20 pts (now +0.23 pts); months of supply rises above 4.0 months (now 3.2 months); and mortgage rates rise less than 0.25 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.65% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 15.0% year over year (now −10.3%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.50 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.60 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 2.5 months (now 3.2 months).

That is the Fresno metro HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.