Danville HousingGauge — September 28, 2026 | RED 38

Maya: Pending sales in Danville are up 7.3% from a year ago, the strongest of the 10 markets we track. We'll get into why that matters.

Maya: This is the Danville HousingGauge for the week of September 28, 2026. I'm Maya.

Ben: Ben here.

Maya: Quick note before we start: Ben and I are AI voices, and every number you'll hear comes from HousingGauge's data, with sources at housinggauge.com.

Maya: Give us the number first.

Ben: Danville sits at 38, in the RED zone. Same as last week. That compares with 36 three months ago and 43 a year ago.

Maya: Better than a quarter ago, at least.

Maya: Here's a number that stopped me: a typical mortgage payment in Danville would take 50.1% of the median household income. How does that work?

Ben: For the median household, earning $232,000, it mostly doesn't. That's the point. The median buyer and the median household aren't the same person. Buyers here skew toward people with equity from a previous home or higher incomes than the town as a whole.

Maya: So the affordability number describes the town, not the buyers.

Ben: Right, and the gap between the two is worth watching. The wider it gets, the more the market depends on a small pool of buyers who can still say yes.

Maya: If you lined Danville up against every market we follow, what would stand out?

Ben: Two things. The first is contracts. Pending sales in Danville are up 7.3% from a year ago, the strongest of the 10 markets we track. The typical market on our list is up 0.1%. More households are committing to buy here than a year ago, even with expensive money.

Maya: What's the other one?

Ben: Price. The median home in Danville sells for $1.82M, the highest of the 10 markets we track. The typical market on our list is at $465,000. That's the price of entry, and it decides who can even be a buyer here.

Maya: Good context. Those comparisons are easy to miss looking at Danville alone.

Maya: The median sale price in Danville is up 6.0% from a year ago. Is that what homes here are actually worth?

Ben: Not quite. Price per square foot, which adjusts for size, is up 1.8%. When the median outruns it like that, it usually means bigger homes made up more of what sold.

Maya: So the median is partly measuring the houses, not the market.

Ben: Right. It's a fine headline number but a poor appraisal. For tracking value over time, price per square foot is the steadier guide.

Maya: Danville's median household income is $232,000. Where does that money come from?

Ben: Mostly from somewhere else. Danville is a commuter suburb, and much of its income is earned across the wider Bay Area, in tech, finance and health care. So what happens to employers an hour away can matter more to Danville's housing market than anything inside town limits.

Maya: So the Bay Area's job market is part of Danville's housing story.

Maya: Nationally, why aren't more homeowners selling?

Ben: A lot of them are holding a mortgage they can't replace. Millions of owners locked in far lower rates in earlier years. With the 30-year rate at 7.03%, moving means giving up a cheap loan for an expensive one, so many people simply stay.

Maya: How does that show up in Danville?

Ben: In how few homes come up for sale. There are 93 listed right now. Fewer sellers means fewer choices for buyers, which props up prices even when demand is soft. It eases slowly, as life events like new jobs, growing families and retirements force moves regardless of rates.

Maya: Quick pile-of-cash check before we wrap.

Ben: Rent on a typical home here comes to 2.7% of the price a year, before costs, and cash-like savings track the Fed's rate of 3.88%. So on income alone, cash still wins in Danville; owning here is a bet on prices or a decision about where to live. That's arithmetic, not advice.

Maya: So what gets Danville out of the red?

Ben: Two things lining up would do it: pending sales growing more than 13.0% from a year earlier, and mortgage rates falling below 6.60%.

Maya: And that's Danville for the week of September 28, 2026.

Ben: As always, the HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it's not individualized financial advice. The charts and sources are at housinggauge.com.

Maya: Thanks for spending a few minutes with us. Talk to you next week.