Danville HousingGauge — September 14, 2026 | RED 40

Welcome to the Danville HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of September 14, 2026.

Here is the headline. Danville's HousingGauge score is 40 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have improved over the past three months, but financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Median price up 6.0% from a year ago. The median sale price is $1.82M; adjusted for inflation, prices are 2.9% higher than a year ago.

Second: Local employment down 2.5% year over year. Unemployment stands at 4.3%.

Third: Mortgage rates up 0.24 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.76%, versus 6.52% three months ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 28 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.76%, up 0.65 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 29 out of 100. Inventory is 12.3% lower than a year ago (93 active listings), with 2.0 months of supply. Homes take a median 26 days to sell at 99.4% of list price, and 30.4% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 59 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.23%, 0.22 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 78 out of 100. Pending sales are 7.3% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 18.8% higher. Days on market are 8.3% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand is firming.

Valuation & Affordability scores 23 out of 100. The median home costs 7.8 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 48.8% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.9% higher than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Local Economy scores 37 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.3% and employment is down 2.5% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 25 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 2.7% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 37.1). Rents are up 2.0% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is up 3 points from last week's report (37 to 40). Over 13 weeks it is up 3 points, from 37 to 40. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+8.6 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.2 points).

So what would move Danville into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.50% (now 6.76%); pending sales grow more than 11.0% year over year (now +7.3%); the Fed cuts more than 0.20 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.05 pts (now +0.22 pts); months of supply rises above 2.6 months (now 2.0 months); and mortgage rates rise less than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.24 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.15% (now 6.76%); pending sales growth slows below 2.0% year over year (now +7.3%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.25 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.60 pts (now +0.22 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.5 months (now 2.0 months).

That is the Danville HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.