Danville HousingGauge — August 24, 2026 | RED 38

Welcome to the Danville HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of August 24, 2026.

Here is the headline. Danville's HousingGauge score is 38 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions are broadly stable, but sellers still hold most of the negotiating leverage.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Median price up 5.6% from a year ago. The median sale price is $1.85M; adjusted for inflation, prices are 2.2% higher than a year ago.

Second: Inventory down 14.5% year over year. 100 homes are listed for sale, equal to 2.3 months of supply.

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 23 days to sell, 15.0% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 32 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.65%, up 0.64 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 27 out of 100. Inventory is 14.5% lower than a year ago (100 active listings), with 2.3 months of supply. Homes take a median 23 days to sell at 99.8% of list price, and 27.9% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 61 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.23%, 0.14 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 57 out of 100. Pending sales are 1.6% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 11.0% higher. Days on market are 15.0% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 22 out of 100. The median home costs 8.0 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 49.1% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.2% higher than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Local Economy scores 37 out of 100. Local unemployment is 4.3% and employment is down 1.9% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 25 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 2.6% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 37.8). Rents are up 2.0% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (37 to 38). Over 13 weeks it is up 1 point, from 37 to 38. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+5.5 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.4 points).

So what would move Danville into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.20% (now 6.65%); pending sales grow more than 4.0% year over year (now −1.6%); the Fed cuts more than 0.30 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.30 pts (now +0.14 pts); months of supply rises above 3.2 months (now 2.3 months); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.14 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.00% (now 6.65%); pending sales fall more than 6.5% year over year (now −1.6%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.25 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.50 pts (now +0.14 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.6 months (now 2.3 months).

That is the Danville HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.