Danville HousingGauge — July 27, 2026 | RED 38

Welcome to the Danville HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 27, 2026.

Here is the headline. Danville's HousingGauge score is 38 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions are broadly stable, but sellers still hold most of the negotiating leverage.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 20 days to sell, 42.9% longer than a year ago.

Second: Median price down 8.5% from a year ago. The median sale price is $1.83M; adjusted for inflation, prices are 11.6% lower than a year ago.

Third: Mortgage rates up 0.35 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.58%, versus 6.23% three months ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 31 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.58%, up 0.49 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 22 out of 100. Inventory is 17.2% lower than a year ago (96 active listings), with 2.3 months of supply. Homes take a median 20 days to sell at 100.3% of list price, and 24.3% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 61 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.15 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months.

Demand Trend scores 56 out of 100. Pending sales are 8.2% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 2.4% higher. Days on market are 42.9% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 35 out of 100. The median home costs 7.9 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 48.2% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 11.6% lower than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Local Economy scores 42 out of 100. Local unemployment is 3.8% and employment is down 1.5% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 23 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 2.7% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 37.6). Rents are up 1.6% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is down 1 point from last week's report (39 to 38). Over 13 weeks it is down 2 points, from 40 to 38. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+7.2 points) and Monetary Conditions (−3.6 points).

So what would move Danville into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 6.58%); pending sales grow more than 13.5% year over year (now +8.2%); the Fed cuts more than 0.30 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.25 pts (now +0.15 pts); months of supply rises above 3.1 months (now 2.3 months); and mortgage rates rise less than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.35 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 6.95% (now 6.58%); pending sales growth slows below 3.5% year over year (now +8.2%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.25 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.50 pts (now +0.15 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.6 months (now 2.3 months).

That is the Danville HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.