Danville HousingGauge — July 13, 2026 | RED 41

Welcome to the Danville HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 13, 2026.

Here is the headline. Danville's HousingGauge score is 41 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have improved over the past three months, but sellers still hold most of the negotiating leverage.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Score up 7 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 34 to 41 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Demand Trend (+8.2 points).

Second: Median price down 7.1% from a year ago. The median sale price is $1.86M; adjusted for inflation, prices are 10.8% lower than a year ago.

Third: Inventory down 13.8% year over year. 100 homes are listed for sale, equal to 2.6 months of supply.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 39 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.49%, up 0.33 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 24 out of 100. Inventory is 13.8% lower than a year ago (100 active listings), with 2.6 months of supply. Homes take a median 15 days to sell at 100.6% of list price, and 25.9% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 72 out of 100. The real policy rate is 0.58%, 0.51 points below the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a accommodative stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months. Policy is a tailwind for credit conditions, though it does not by itself move home prices.

Demand Trend scores 55 out of 100. Pending sales are 6.6% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 7.2% lower. Days on market are 7.1% longer than a year ago. Demand is steady.

Valuation & Affordability scores 34 out of 100. The median home costs 8.0 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 48.5% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 10.8% lower than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Local Economy scores 42 out of 100. Local unemployment is 3.8% and employment is down 1.5% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 17 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 2.6% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 38.7). Rents are up 0.4% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is up 4 points from last week's report (37 to 41). Over 13 weeks it is up 7 points, from 34 to 41. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (+8.2 points) and Rental Economics (−1.1 points).

So what would move Danville into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.25% (now 6.49%); pending sales grow more than 9.5% year over year (now +6.6%); the Fed cuts more than 0.20 pts over six months (now −0.02 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.75 pts (now −0.51 pts); months of supply rises above 3.1 months (now 2.6 months); and mortgage rates keep falling over three months (now +0.12 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 6.85% (now 6.49%); pending sales growth slows below 1.5% year over year (now +6.6%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.25 pts over six months (now −0.02 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above −0.15 pts (now −0.51 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.9 months (now 2.6 months).

That is the Danville HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.