Danville HousingGauge — July 6, 2026 | RED 37

Welcome to the Danville HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of July 6, 2026.

Here is the headline. Danville's HousingGauge score is 37 out of 100, which puts the market in the RED zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and sellers still hold most of the negotiating leverage.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 15 days to sell, 25.0% longer than a year ago.

Second: Score down 4 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 41 to 37 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Demand Trend (−2.6 points).

Third: Median price down 3.1% from a year ago. The median sale price is $1.86M; adjusted for inflation, prices are 7.0% lower than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 44 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 6.43%, up 0.28 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 26 out of 100. Inventory is 7.4% lower than a year ago (100 active listings), with 2.6 months of supply. Homes take a median 15 days to sell at 100.6% of list price, and 25.9% of listings have had a price cut. Sellers retain most of the negotiating leverage.

Monetary Conditions scores 72 out of 100. The real policy rate is 0.59%, 0.50 points below the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.09% — a accommodative stance. The fed funds rate is unchanged over six months. Policy is a tailwind for credit conditions, though it does not by itself move home prices.

Demand Trend scores 20 out of 100. Pending sales are 5.8% lower than a year ago and closed sales are 18.3% lower. Days on market are 25.0% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 33 out of 100. The median home costs 8.0 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 48.2% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 7.0% lower than a year ago. Prices are stretched relative to local incomes.

Local Economy scores 42 out of 100. Local unemployment is 3.8% and employment is down 1.5% year over year. The local job market is softening.

Rental Economics scores 17 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 2.6% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 38.7). Rents are up 0.4% year over year. Rental yields are thin relative to prices.

The score is up 1 point from last week's report (36 to 37). Over 13 weeks it is down 4 points, from 41 to 37. The largest contributors were Demand Trend (−2.6 points) and Rental Economics (−1.1 points).

So what would move Danville into the yellow? It would take several changes together: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 5.95% (now 6.43%); pending sales grow more than 0.5% year over year (now −5.8%); the Fed cuts more than 0.35 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −1.00 pts (now −0.50 pts); months of supply rises above 3.5 months (now 2.6 months); and mortgage rates fall more than 0.30 pts over three months (now −0.03 pts).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 6.80% (now 6.43%); pending sales fall more than 10.5% year over year (now −5.8%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.25 pts over six months (now −0.01 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above −0.15 pts (now −0.50 pts); and months of supply falls below 1.9 months (now 2.6 months).

That is the Danville HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.