Northwest Arkansas, Arkansas

Welcome to the Northwest Arkansas HousingGauge, your weekly local market report for the week of October 5, 2026.

Here is the headline. Northwest Arkansas's HousingGauge score is 51 out of 100, which puts the market in the YELLOW zone. Conditions have weakened over the past three months, and financing remains expensive.

Three developments stand out this week.

First: Mortgage rates up 0.85 points in three months. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, versus 6.43% three months ago.

Second: Score down 8 points over 13 weeks. The score moved from 59 to 51 over the past 13 weeks, driven mainly by Mortgage Conditions (−6.3 points).

Third: Homes selling more slowly. The median home takes 43 days to sell, 26.5% longer than a year ago.

Now, what is behind the score?

Mortgage Conditions scores 12 out of 100. The 30-year fixed rate averages 7.28%, up 0.82 percentage points over six months. Financing remains expensive, limiting affordability for leveraged buyers.

Supply & Buyer Leverage scores 65 out of 100. Inventory is 15.5% higher than a year ago (4,131 active listings), with 5.0 months of supply. Homes take a median 43 days to sell at 98.0% of list price, and 23.4% of listings have had a price cut. Negotiating leverage is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

Monetary Conditions scores 53 out of 100. The real policy rate is 1.24%, 0.23 points above the estimated neutral rate (r-star) of 1.01% — a near neutral stance. The fed funds rate has risen 0.24 points over six months.

Demand Trend scores 37 out of 100. Pending sales are 1.7% higher than a year ago and closed sales are 10.6% lower. Days on market are 26.5% longer than a year ago. Buyer demand has softened.

Valuation & Affordability scores 70 out of 100. The median home costs 4.7 times the median household income. Principal and interest on a typical purchase would take 30.8% of that income at current rates. Inflation-adjusted prices are 2.6% lower than a year ago. Valuations look comparatively reasonable.

Local Economy scores 100 out of 100. Local unemployment is 2.9% and employment is up 3.4% year over year. The local economy looks healthy.

Rental Economics scores 47 out of 100. A year of median rent equals 5.0% of the median price (a price-to-rent ratio of 20.2). Rents are up 1.6% year over year. Rental economics are middling.

The score is unchanged from last week's report. Over 13 weeks it is down 8 points, from 59 to 51. The largest contributors were Mortgage Conditions (−6.3 points) and Monetary Conditions (−2.9 points).

So what would move Northwest Arkansas into the green? It is 19 points away, which would take a broad shift in conditions. Even these changes together would add only about 17 points: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6.15% (now 7.28%); pending sales grow more than 15.0% year over year (now +1.7%); the Fed cuts more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) narrows below −0.90 pts (now +0.23 pts); mortgage rates fall more than 0.10 pts over three months (now +0.85 pts); and months of supply rises above 6.5 months (now 5.0 months).

And what could make conditions worse? Watch for these together: 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7.70% (now 7.28%); pending sales fall more than 4.0% year over year (now +1.7%); the Fed raises rates more than 0.55 pts over six months (now +0.24 pts); policy gap (real policy rate minus r-star) widens above +0.65 pts (now +0.23 pts); and months of supply falls below 4.1 months (now 5.0 months).

That is the Northwest Arkansas HousingGauge for this week. The HousingGauge score describes market conditions. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and it is not individualized financial advice. For charts, sources and the full methodology, visit housinggauge.com. Thanks for listening.